October 16, 2009 at 9:34 am
I don't think I'd be as quick to dismiss the restaurant business or landscaping as simple. I probably couldln't remember the orders of all the people at a table for six, and I certainly couldn't reproduce the breathtaking designs of somebody like Capability Brown.
I think people will continue to deal with objects, they'll be more smarts built into the object but nobody will know or care. Look at the history of stereos. Once the cost of a new stereo dropped to within an order of magnitude of fixing a broken one people started viewing them as 'black boxes', and a knowledge of electronics which was cool and valuable in the 70s (anyone remember Popular Electronics?) quickly became relegated to the dustbin of history. How many stereo repair shops are left in your town? Info tech will go the same way, and sooner than you think.
Robb
October 16, 2009 at 10:10 am
jcrawf02 (10/16/2009)
Dammit Luke, you used the force and beat me to it! :hehe: I've been wanting to buy one of those, but have yet to actually do it. Anybody own one/seen one in action?Edit* - And I think the answer is both, but for the objects that we currently have today, the answer is bits. The objects will just be newer concepts.
A friend of mine has one that he swears by. Don't remember what brand he bought but he loves to just send out his robot mower.
October 16, 2009 at 10:40 am
My main prediction is that people will continue to make predictions.
I think more and more work will revolve around moving money from point A to point B, instead of actually doing anything productive. That will involve bits and bytes rather than physical work, but I think more and more of it will require less and less people, even at the IT level.
But then I also think that the next ice age has already started (1998) and will begin to really hit its stride in 2-3 years. Since that pretty much makes me a lunatic on the subject, take that into account on any predictions I might make. 🙂
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October 16, 2009 at 11:07 am
Both is my short answer.
On a broad level I expect to see objects since programming has morphed from low level to high level for the majority of programmers.
That said future casting is a very dicey business. If unforeseen events don't change things the Both still applies. If a cataclysmic event happens all bets are off. We might be back in the stone age. If a new paradigm shift happens we may have something completely unthought of.
October 16, 2009 at 11:56 am
Luke L - Thanks for the link - I heard about the robot lawn mowers but I didn't realize they were so far along. And may the force be with you. OK, I'm sorry, I couldn't help it. How many people have done that today?
Robert.Smith-1001156 - Actually, I'm not suggesting that restaurants are simple as such - I'm just saying our machines are getting more sophisticated.
Of course, there are always people who will prefer human interaction to machines and maybe they'll even prefer it to the point of being willing to pay for it. So, we'll have high end restaurants featuring human wait-staff. But, we'll also see a return to 'Horn and Hardart' style places where you push the right buttons and the food comes out. McDonald's is already working on it as I understand.
I'm just saying that anyone who is basing their future on the belief that there will be non-skilled jobs is going to be hit with a big surprise. Most people will be designing machines, making machines (only jobs too complex for robots), fixing machines, and programming machines. Some bankers will watch the money go back and forth. There will be some room for creative alternatives, but no room for dummies...
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October 16, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Boy, I hope there's room for dummies. Sure seem to be a lot of them out there.
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October 16, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Steve Jones - Editor (10/16/2009)
Boy, I hope there's room for dummies. Sure seem to be a lot of them out there.
I'm sure there will be room. They have good lobbyists.
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"stewsterl 80804 (10/16/2009)I guess when you stop and try to understand the solution provided you not only learn, but save yourself some headaches when you need to make any slight changes."
October 16, 2009 at 12:32 pm
The dummies will have plenty to do. Can you imagine how many snow-blowers it will take to handle mile-thick ice covering Canada, most of Europe, and major portion of Asia? Ooops, there I go again!
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October 16, 2009 at 12:58 pm
The volcanic super-eruption of Yellowstone should shatter and melt a lot of the glacial ice, although the ash from the blast will probably bring on global cooling as well as covering North America to a depth of five or six feet.
But what does this have to do with the future of bits?
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October 16, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Five or six feet of ash? Try up to 20 meters of the stuff in the explosion 64,000 years ago.
Edit: Nothing much on the subject of the future of bits. The subject, however, is the relationship between what could be classified as manual or productive labor vs intellectual or knowledge labor. Bits are just one factor in that.
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October 16, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Sometimes while sitting at a computer screen and living in a city, its hard to remember all the people out there that are not.
I work at a code shop that happens to be at a horse ranch. While banging out web site content or oil and gas applications we take breaks to watch the hunter jumpers running courses. No machine will ever replace what happens there. I think when I see the doctors and veterinarians, these career people are less about "pushing" bits then consuming them. High tech tools proliferate here. (The labs are impressive.) But they are just tools to help with working with the objects.
The people doing so called "simple work" though, like cleaning stalls or dusting my office, take pride in what they do. You might not, and it might not be considered glamorous. (Mike Rowe seems to be doing a pretty good job of glamorizing the mundane.) But its simply a matter of perspective. A talented graphic designer here goes home on weekends to help his parents milk at their dairy farm. He misses it. The dairy farm is automated, but somebody has to hook it up.
Humans by nature tend to be craftsman. Whether elegant code, a more efficient battery, or mastering horticulture, its really part of a craft.
So bits or objects? I would vote that since the OVERWHELMING majority of people worldwide work with objects, that will remain the same. The change is that in addition, more and more people ALSO work with bits.
October 16, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Excellent summary, acarlson. Excellent.
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October 16, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Ohhhh..... you mean real physical objects... not higher level code constructs. 😉
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October 16, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Steve Jones - Editor (10/16/2009)
Boy, I hope there's room for dummies. Sure seem to be a lot of them out there.
Of course, if you catch me on a bad day, some might put me in that group :hehe:
Maybe I should have said "less than motivated", although there are still a lot of those, too...
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October 16, 2009 at 2:21 pm
acarlson, where do you work?
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How best to post your question[/url]
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Tally Table:What it is and how it replaces a loop[/url]
"stewsterl 80804 (10/16/2009)I guess when you stop and try to understand the solution provided you not only learn, but save yourself some headaches when you need to make any slight changes."
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